Recent climate modelling shows South Australia is in for hotter days more often, declining rain but with heavier falls, and more severe fire conditions.

The Department for Environment and Water’s latest Guide to Climate Projections for Risk Assessment and Planning in South Australia shows the likely effects of climate change by modelling different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

The concerning projections indicate increases in maximum, minimum and average temperatures, and a decline in average annual rain despite a greater frequency of extreme falls.

The guide provides a summary of the likely changes to key climate variables, such as temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, days of severe fire danger and sea level rises under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

It draws on the most up-to-date climate change projections for South Australia and will be used by governments, businesses and communities to prepare for climate change.

Emergency Service s Minister Joe Szakacs says the projections reinforce why the state government declared a climate emergency earlier this year and why it can’t afford to wait any longer on real climate change action.

“Computer-modelled climate projections are the best information we have available to help the government, industries and communities to plan for our future,” he says.

“The time for climate change action is now and it is incumbent upon us all to support businesses and the community to adapt and reduce emissions.”

Climate trends projected for South Australia to 2050 indicate:

·       Higher temperatures.

·       Warmer spring temperatures.

·       Hotter and more frequent hot days.

·       Declining rainfall.

·       Lower spring rainfall.

·       More intense heavy rainfall events.

·       More dangerous fire weather.

A mid-range scenario is representative of a global temperature increase of 1.9 degrees to 2.9 degrees by 2100 (compared with 1986-2005), while a high-range scenario represents a 3.6 degree to 5 degree global increase over the same period.

Statistical tables for Adelaide and nine regional South Australian towns, along with statewide maps, provide an in-depth analysis on projected climate variables to 2030, 2050 and, for the first time, 2090. 

These are provided for both a mid-range and high-range emissions scenario.

The guide can be found on the DEW website.